AFC East Odds: Buffalo Bills Favorites Over First-Place Miami Dolphins
The AFC East division title is still wide open heading into Week 11 of the NFL season. The Buffalo Bills are the betting favorite to win the AFC East at -185 odds, according to a recent update by DraftKings. The Miami Dolphins are the second favorite on the board at +250 odds, even though they seized first place in the division thanks to a four-game winning streak.
The Dolphins lead the AFC East with a 7-3 record, but the Bills lost two games in a row and fell to second place in the division with a 6-3 record.
The New York Jets are the surprise team in the division with a 6-3 record, especially after an upset victory over the Bills in Week 9. The Jets have the most difficult remaining schedule compared to the rest of the AFC East, which is why they’re a long shot at -1000 odds.
|AFC East Odds
|New York Jets||6-3||+1000|
|New England Patriots||5-4||+1200|
The New England Patriots might be in last place in the AFC East with a 5-4 record, but they still have four more division games remaining on the schedule. You can never count out Bill Belichick and the Patriots to pull off a huge upset to win the AFC East at +1200 odds.
Buffalo Bills -185
The Bills Mafia is trying not to freak out after the Bills dropped two games in a row. Two of their three losses this season were division games, and the Bills are now 0-2 versus AFC East foes. All three of the Bills’ losses were by three points or less for a combined total of eight points.
Quarterback Josh Allen, nursing a painful UCL injury, started against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 10. The Bills lost 33-30 in overtime, which is the leading contender for “Game of the Year” through the first 10 weeks of the season.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s NFL projections, the Bills are the favorites to win the AFC East with a 49% chance. The Bills won the division in the last two seasons, and they’re the favorite at -185 odds to win three AFC East titles in a row.
Miami Dolphins +250
The Dolphins are 7-0 this season when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa finishes the games. They’re 0-3 in the games in which he was knocked out in Week 4, or they had to start a backup in Weeks 5 and 6.
The Dolphins won four games in a row since Tagovailoa returned to the lineup after suffering a brutal head injury and concussion against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 4. The Dolphins’ fate for the rest of this season is tethered to Tagovailoa’s health. If he can avoid the IR, then the Dolphins have a chance to win their first AFC East title since 2008.
The Dolphins are on a bye this week and have seven games remaining on their schedule. They play three more home games against the Houston Texans (Week 12), Green Bay Packers (Week 16), and Jets (Week 18). They hit the road four more times, including three straight away games in December against the San Francisco 49ers (Week 13), Los Angeles Chargers (Week 14), and Buffalo Bills (Week 15). The Dolphins also square off against the Patriots in Foxboro on January 1 in the penultimate game of the season.
The Dolphins have a 36% chance to win the division according to FiveThirtyEight. Out of all four teams, the Dolphins are the best value pick at +150 odds to win the AFC East.
New York Jets +1000
Quarterback Zach Wilson missed the first three games of the season with a knee injury, and the Jets went 1-2 with backup Joe Flacco as the starter. Since Wilson returned in Week 4, the Jets went 5-1 with their lone loss against the Patriots in Week 8. The Jets bounced back from that divisional loss with a stunning upset over the Bills in Week 9.
The Jets had a bye in Week 10 and face a tough second half of the season with just three home games and five difficult away games. They hit the road for three away games over the next four weeks, including the Patriots this Sunday, Minnesota Vikings (Week 13), and Bills (Week 14). The Jets finish their season against two opponents that are currently in first place in their respective divisions. They meet the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17 and finish out the season against the Dolphins in Week 18.
On a positive note, the Jets host three home games against losing teams: the Chicago Bears (Week 12), Detroit Lions (Week 15), and Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 16).
The Jets are tied with the Dolphins with a 2-1 division record this season, yet the Jets are +1000 odds to win the AFC East. FiveThirtyEight projected the Jets have a 59% chance to lock up a postseason berth, but only a 10% chance to win the AFC East. The Jets last won the AFC East in 2002.
New England Patriots +1200
After starting the season 1-3, the Patriots won four out of their previous five games. Even though they have five wins, the Patriots defeated four opponents with losing records.
The Patriots were forced to start rookie Bailey Zappe for three games when starting quarterback Mac Jones missed time with a high ankle sprain. Jones was expected to miss six to eight weeks, but he returned to the lineup after missing only three games. Jones might have rushed back too quickly because he struggled upon his return. Belichick benched him in a 33-14 loss against the Chicago Bears, but Zappe didn’t fare any better in relief.
Jones played much better since his benching against the Bears, leading the Patriots to two-straight victories.
The Patriots are fresh off a bye week and host the Jets in Week 11. They have three other remaining home games against the Bills (week 13), Cincinnati Bengals (Week 16), and Dolphins (Week 17). The Patriots have four more away games, including the Minnesota Vikings (Week 12), Arizona Cardinals (Week 14), Las Vegas raiders (week 15), and Buffalo Bills (Week 18).
FiveThirtyEight projects the Patriots have a 39% chance to qualify for the playoffs and just a 6% chance to win the division. The Patriots are the long shot on the futures board at +1200 odds to win the AFC East.
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