Same Old Jets? Giants Lose on Final Play? New York Football Fans Dread Debuts
New York football fans have one final day before the suffering begins. Here’s what’s in store for the season.
Jets fans: It has been too long since Joe Namath won your only Super Bowl in 1969 when gasoline was 34 cents per gallon and Woodstock was six months away. So you know what likely awaits you despite Robert Saleh’s best intentions. Things will go wrong this season, despite the undefeated preseason, and whether it happens in September or October or — just imagine — January, there will come a point when the “Same Old Jets” moment happens.
Giants fans: After watching what we all watched in Game 2 last season when the Washington Football team won on a second chance game-ending field goal on an untimed down (because Dexter Lawrence of the Giants was offsides on the first kick, a miss), you are all hereby excused if you did not watch a single ensuing game in the 4-13 disaster of a season. Brian Daboll is the new head coach after Joe Judge became Ray Handley 2.0.
The Jets open at home at 1 p.m. EDT, and Joe Flacco gets an alumni game if Zach Wilson stays out. The Ravens dumped Flacco after 11 decent seasons, eight of which featured him completing at least 60 percent of his passes. Flacco has been interception prone throughout his career, but Baltimore ranked 29th in defensive takeaways last season. Will that matter against Team Snake Bit?
The Jets are 6 1/2-point home underdogs, which means they are in the company of the Texans and Bears, who are both getting seven at home. So no, Vegas does not believe in Gang Green.
"It's official: the Jets are a disaster AGAIN. … How is [Joe Flacco] Plan B for the Jets?! I don't know how a Jets fan exists!"
—@AdamSchein is NOT happy with the Jets' decision to start Joe Flacco in Week 1 pic.twitter.com/vMBjwuTaOn
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 7, 2022
What Are The Key Wagering Points?
The Jets were 6-11-0 against the spread last season but 3-5 ATS as a home underdog, and they went over in 10 of 17 games, with half of those overs coming when they were a home underdog happened eight times. So while that data does not exactly scream “take the Jets and the over,” it is what it is. Their O/U line against Baltimore is 44, and the Ravens went just 1-4 on overs last season as a road favorite.
The Giants face the tall task of trying to stop monster running back Derrick Henry of the Titans, who outweighs most of the Giants’ starting defensive unit. Henry was been working out in a sandpit to regain strength in the broken foot that limited him to 8 games last season after he led the NFL in rushing yards in 2020. Big Blue has always prided itself on its defense, so here is a daunting first test.
Games with 200+ rushing yards:
Derrick Henry: 5
Every other active NFL running back: 4 pic.twitter.com/QGbxiyqIXq
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) September 9, 2022
Tennessee is favored by 5 1/2, and the Titans went 3-4-0 against the spread as a home favorite last season, while the Giants were 3-6-0 ATS last season as road underdogs. Tennessee went over in just one of seven home games last season when favored, and the Giants went over five times in nine games as a road ‘dog.
Bad Horses Do Not Have These Types of Long Odds
Hope springs eternal in Week One of the NFL season, so at least Jets and Giants fans have that going for them. But managing expectations is what it is all about, and staying in contention for a playoff spot would probably be enough to placate these two fan bases by the time January rolls around. Nobody expects either of these teams to win the Super Bowl. The Giants and Jets both have championship odds of +13000, so at least they are not the Texans (+25000).
Look, this NFL season is going to be about Tom and Giselle, Aaron and Ayahuasca, Russell Wilson and his blood feud with Seattle, Deshawn Watson’s eventual return, and Josh Allen is a key member of New York’s best team (because Buffalo is what makes New York a three-football team state).
This is the first season in which Jets and Giants, and Bills fans can bet legally within New York state, and the volume of New York money that comes in on the green team and the blue team and Gov. Hochul’s team has the potential to impact lines during any given week.
For tomorrow, action is coming against the Jets at an astounding level. Take BetMGM, for instance. The Ravens-Jets has the second-highest volume of bets on the slate (behind Chiefs-Cardinals), and no less than 81 percent of the spread bets and 85 percent of the handle have come in on Baltimore, forcing MGM to move the line from 7 to 4 1/2.
For the Titans-Giants game, the percentages on spread bets, over/unders and moneyline wagers are in the 50-50 range.
When a season starts, there is not much to go on. Yes, the Jets were undefeated in the preseason. And that counts for bupkus right now. Zach Wilson had only 9 TD passes and 11 interceptions as a rookie, and this will presumably be his team, not Flacco’s, next weekend against Cleveland.
Flacco’s passing yardage over/under has been set at 238 1/2, a dozen yards higher than Lamar Jackson’s. Both are +4000 to have the most passing yards of any NFL quarterback this weekend.
Elijah Moore’s best game last season was with Joe Flacco as the QB…
1 TD pic.twitter.com/GNgtkMY1B3
— 𝙅𝙀𝙏𝙎 𝙈𝙀𝘿𝙄𝘼 (@NYJets_Media) September 7, 2022
In the Giants-Titans game, Henry is the +320 NFL favorite to have the highest rushing yardage total, and Saquon Barkley is +4000. So that there might be your upset special if you really, truly believe in longshots. Then again, in certain NBA circles “Bet on Barkley” is a tried and true gambling strategy in roulette (playing his Philadelphia and Team USA numbers, 34 and 4), so if you want to believe in Saquon after all these years of disbelieving in him, there is your chance.
Look, Week 1 is a crapshoot. If you had wagered that last year’s Week 2 game against Washington that it would come down to a last-play-of-the-game field goal on a do-over, you would be so rich that you would be watching this Sunday’s games on your yacht.
Jets fans are more snakebitten than Giants fans, but most are smart. They are not delusional about their team’s Super Bowl chances this season, they just want some semblance of relevance to carry into mid-December.
Getting there and making money in the newly legalized New York market will be a dual challenge. The success factor of New York bettors will play a huge role in the sportsbooks deciding whether to start offering lucrative bonuses to existing customers. All of those advertisements you are hearing again on TV and the radio are geared toward new customers, and there ain’t many of them left in New York.
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