Super Bowl Odds: Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles Still Top 3 at Season Midpoint
After the first eight weeks of the NFL season, the Buffalo Bills are the consensus betting favorite to win Super Bowl LVII at +225 odds, according to DraftKings. The Philadelphia Eagles are +500 odds, and the Kansas City Chiefs are +650 odds to win the Super Bowl as the closest competition to the front-running Bills.
The Eagles have the best record at 7-0 and remain the only undefeated team in the NFL, but they’re only the second-best favorite to win the Super Bowl behind the Bills with a 6-1 record.
|SUPER BOWL ODDS||WEEK 8||WEEK 1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+650||+800|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1300||+2200|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+2500||+700|
The defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams are on the verge of missing the postseason after a 3-4 start. Their odds dropped to +4000.
The Cincinnati Bengals were the runner-up in Super Bowl LVI, but the AFC champions are only 4-4 after an ugly loss against the Cleveland Browns on “Monday Night Football.” The Bengals still have a legion of fans that think they’ll turn things around in the second half of the season, which is why their Super Bowl LVII odds are +4000.
Buffalo Bills +225
The Bills began the preseason as the public favorite to win the Super Bowl, and bettors continue to back them. The Bills saw their odds steadily narrow throughout the season. Just four weeks ago, you could have backed the Bills at +400 to win the Super Bowl, but their odds have since bumped to +225.
Quarterback Josh Allen leads the second-highest scoring attack in the NFL, averaging 29 points per game, but it’s the Bills’ suffocating defense that has been impossible to crack. The Bills allow only 14 points per game, and they’re one of four teams that hold opponents to under 95 rushing yards per game.
Bills Mafia is the NFL’s most rabid fan base and is still hoping the Bills can finally win their first-ever Super Bowl. Bills Mafia hopes their beloved squad can remain healthy in the second half of the season. They want to avoid replicating last year’s midseason doldrums. The Bills peaked too early in 2021 and then suffered a devastating loss in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round.
Keep an eye on next week’s game against the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) in Week 10. The Bills also host the Miami Dolphins in Week 15, one week before Christmas. They kick off 2023 with a “Monday Night Football” game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
Philadelphia Eagles +500
When the Eagles began the season, they were only +1600 odds to win the Super Bowl. Even their most loyal fans were reticent to fire away on futures bets. With the first two months of the season complete, the Eagles emerged as the team to beat in the NFC after posting a perfect 7-0 record. As the Eagles extended their winning streak, their Super Bowl odds shrunk week-to-week. You can bet them right now at +500 odds.
Versatile quarterback Jalen Hurts is the new face of the NFC while aging veterans Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers look like dinosaurs on the verge of extinction. Hurts completed 67% of his passes for 1,799 yards and 10 touchdowns. He only threw two interceptions, which is tied for second lowest among starting quarterbacks. The mobile and elusive Hurts also rushed 70 times for 303 yards and six touchdowns.
The Eagles have the fourth-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing only 16.9 points per game. They haven’t allowed more than 17 points per game in their previous three victories. They also held two opponents to single-digit scoring. If you dismiss the 35 points they coughed up against the Detroit Lions in Week 1, the Eagles allowed only 13.8 points per game since the season opener.
The Eagles have an easy schedule in November and could carry an 11-0 record into December. However, their schedule in December is tough, with a home game against Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans before they hit the road for three straight away games against the New York Giants, Chicago Bears, and Dallas Cowboys.
Kansas City Chiefs +650
The trio of Super Bowl favorites — the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs — are also the league’s top three offenses. The Bills and Eagles also boast a top-four scoring defense, while the Chiefs are lacking in that department. Defense is their biggest weakness.
The Chiefs traded wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in the offseason, but the loss of their former speedster hasn’t derailed the offense one bit. Even without Hill, the Chiefs are the highest-scoring team in the NFL this season, averaging 31.9 points per game. But, they have to win shootouts because they have the 10th-worst defense in the league, allowing 24.6 points per game.
The Chiefs knocked the Bills out of the playoffs last year in an overtime game widely considered the best postseason game in the modern era. The Bills enacted revenge with a 24-20 victory in Week 6, which marked only the second loss of the season for the Chiefs. The way this season has unfolded, the Bills and Chiefs are the top two teams in the AFC once again.
The Chiefs are fresh off a bye week and only three of their second-half opponents — the Tennessee Titans, Los Angeles Chargers, and Seattle Seahawks — have winning records heading into Week 9. The Chiefs have three road games at the beginning of December against the Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, and Houston Texans. The matchup against the Bengals in Week 13 is a revenge game and rematch of last year’s AFC championship when the Bengals upset the Chiefs to advance to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers +1300
The San Francisco 49ers could emerge as the biggest threat to the Eagles in the NFC after they acquired running back Christian McCaffrey in a trade. The 49ers are 4-4 and only average 22 points per game, but their defense kept them afloat in the first half. They allow only 18.4 points per game for the fifth-best defense in the NFL. They’re ranked #7 overall in defensive DVOA with the third-best rush defense.
The addition of McCaffrey will help boost their offense as they eagerly await the return of Deebo Samuel, who missed time with a hamstring injury.
The 49ers didn’t trade quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo in the offseason, which probably saved their season after starting quarterback Trey Lance suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 2. If the injury-prone Jimmy G can stay healthy the rest of the season, the 49ers will be a tough matchup in the postseason.
The 49ers were +2200 odds to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season, and have seen a slight bump to +1300 after a 4-4 start.
The 49ers sit in second place in the NFC West, but they only have three more division games to catch the first-place Seattle Seahawks. They still have to play the Arizona Cardinals twice, and have a tough road game against the Seahawks on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 15.
In Week 11, the 49ers and Cardinals meet for a “Monday Night Football” showdown south of the border at the historic Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.
Dallas Cowboys +1500
Even though the Cowboys lost quarterback Dak Prescott to a thumb injury, backup Cooper Rush guided the team to a 4-1 record. The undefeated Eagles handed Rush his lone loss as a starter this season in Week 6.
Heading into Week 9, the Cowboys are 6-2 and have the third-best record in the NFC thanks to their defense. They allow only 16.6 points per game with the third-best defense in the NFL that’s anchored by linebacker Micah Parsons. Their defense is ranked #3 in DVOA thanks to an air-tight secondary and menacing pass rush.
The Cowboys were +4000 odds to win Super Bowl LVII at the start of the season, but even losing Prescott for five games didn’t deter bettors. The Cowboys saw their odds steadily move throughout the season. At +1500 odds to win the Super Bowl, the Cowboys are the fifth favorite on DraftKings’ futures board.
After a bye this weekend, the Cowboys hit the road for back-to-back games against the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings. Their Week 11 matchup against the Vikings could be a potential playoff preview.
On Thanksgiving, the Cowboys host NFC East division rival the New York Giants (6-2). In Week 16, the undefeated Eagles head to Texas for a Christmas Eve showdown against the Cowboys.
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